高校新农村研究院：科技支撑乡村振兴的有效载体

[目的]较之前开展的新农村建设,乡村振兴战略是一种更高层次的发展手段和目标。文章旨在对高校新农村研究院推动乡村振兴的实践经验和困难问题进行梳理,分析背后的成因与制约因素,以期为以高校新农村研究院为抓手、从科技引领和支撑的角度推动乡村振兴战略的落地实施提供有针对性的建议。[方法]该文从协同创新理论出发,基于对沈阳农业大学新农村发展研究院的实地调研,采用文献梳理、归纳总结和定性分析等方法对高校新农村研究院为乡村振兴战略提供科技支撑的机理、模式、作用和困难问题进行了梳理。[结果]高校新农村发展研究院通过整合政府、高校、企业等多方资源,从技术协同、人才协同与理念协同3方面为乡村振兴提供了有效支撑。但目前各级政府对高校新农村研究院的作用地位还缺乏充分认识,存在财政支持不到位、技术推广激励与考评机制不完善等问题。[结论]整合各方科技创新资源,构建起各类主体跨界协同、不同技术集成应用、创新资源全链配置、关联产业融合发展的新型农业科技协同创新体系;进一步强化高校新农村发展研究院在农业科技服务中的主体地位,增强财政对新农村发展研究院的持续投入,改革高校农技推广人员职称评定与考核激励机制。     

“Speculative Influence Network” during financial bubbles: application to Chinese stock markets

We introduce the Speculative Influence Network (SIN) to decipher the causal relationships between sectors (and/or firms) during financial bubbles. The SIN is constructed in two steps. First, we develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) of regime-switching between a normal market phase represented by a geometric Brownian motion and a bubble regime represented by the stochastic super-exponential Sornette and Andersen (Int J Mod Phys C 13(2):171–188, 2002) bubble model. The calibration of the HMM provides the probability at each time for a given security to be in the bubble regime. Conditional on two assets being qualified in the bubble regime, we then use the transfer entropy to quantify the influence of the returns of one asset i onto another asset j, from which we introduce the adjacency matrix of the SIN among securities. We apply our technology to the Chinese stock market during the period 2005–2008, during which a normal phase was followed by a spectacular bubble ending in a massive correction. We introduce the Net Speculative Influence Intensity variable as the difference between the transfer entropies from i to j and from j to i, which is used in a series of rank ordered regressions to predict the maximum loss (%MaxLoss) endured during the crash. The sectors that influenced other sectors the most are found to have the largest losses. There is some predictability obtained by using the transfer entropy involving industrial sectors to explain the %MaxLoss of financial institutions but not vice versa. We also show that the bubble state variable calibrated on the Chinese market data corresponds well to the regimes when the market exhibits a strong price acceleration followed by clear change of price regimes. Our results suggest that SIN may contribute significant skill to the development of general linkage-based systemic risks measures and early warning metrics.     

The effects of slack resource of R&D professionals on firm performance: evidence from traditional manufacturing firms in an emerging economy

Abstract

As an important component of organizational human resource slack (HR slack), the slack of research-and-development (R&D) professionals has been studied by several authors. However, it remains unclear whether and how this small component of general HR slack, i.e. the slack of research-and-development professionals (RHR slack), may affect overall firm performance in an emerging economy without much R&D tradition or pro-R&D institutions. Based on two organizational theories, i.e. institutional theory and the resource-based view of the firm (RBV), we propose competing hypotheses on the relationship between RHR slack and firms’ accounting performance. We also examine whether the relationship between RHR slack and firm performance should be linear or curvilinear. Finally, we also test the relationship between RHR slack and other dimensions of firm performance. Several interesting findings have been obtained. For instance, neither the perspective based on institutional theory nor that based on RBV can fully predict all types of RHR slack-performance relationships, be these relationships linear or curvilinear.     

Long‐term economic consequences of corporate environmental responsibility: Evidence from heavily polluting listed companies in China

In this study, we aim to investigate the long‐term economic consequences of corporate environmental responsibility (CER) by companies from the perspective of earnings persistence and investors' response. Based on firm‐level data of 1,010 heavily polluting listed companies in China, the empirical results are as follows. First, the CER of China's heavily polluting listed companies has significantly improved their earnings persistence, that is, earnings quality. Second, the positive long‐term economic effect of CER has been achieved through two paths: improving companies' operational efficiency and reducing their credit costs. Third, CER increases investors' response to heavily polluting companies' accounting earnings. Moreover, state‐owned listed companies achieve more significant positive long‐term economic effects from CER than others. The results suggest that heavily polluting companies should correctly identify the long‐term value of CER rather than pay excessive attention to the impact of CER on their current costs and benefits.     

京沪高铁沧州西站客流特征及服务策略研究

京沪高铁的开通,促进了河北省沧州市与北京、天津、上海等国内一线城市的交流,对加快河北省经济发展具有重要意义。基于京沪高铁沧州西站客流调查数据,文章从旅客的基本情况、出行目的、费用来源、月均收入、出行方向等方面分析了沧州西站的客流结构特征,从旅客的出行次数、结伴人数、出行时间、返程时间和车站的位置、服务等方面分析了沧州西站的旅客出行特征。在此基础上,从开行方案、票制、票价、交通换乘、服务方式等方面提出提升沧州西站服务的策略建议。     

一种利用均匀圆阵对称特性的近场源酉变换估计算法

针对现有均匀圆阵的近场源三维参数估计算法运算量大的缺点，提出了一种基于均匀圆阵对称特性的近场源酉变换估计算法。该算法利用均匀圆阵对称特性将阵列导向矢量进行酉变换和对角化分离处理，消除距离参数，把三维搜索问题化简为二维搜索问题，同时把复值方向矢量转化为实值方向矢量。计算机仿真结果显示,所提算法估计性能优于相关序列降维估计方法，与三维多重信号分类算法性能相当，且通过矩阵分离降维和实值化处理，减少了运算量，有利于工程实时处理。     

利用双正交小波变换优化G3-PLC系统性能

为了提高G3-PLC(G3-Power Line Communication)在复杂信道环境下通信的可靠性，提出了基于双正交小波变换的正交频分复用（Discrete Wavelet Transform-Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing,DWT-OFDM）。通过双正交小波变换减小复杂信道环境下G3-PLC通信系统中OFDM载波间干扰，并通过合理减少循环前缀，优化传输效率，降低峰均比。在DWT-OFDM的G3-PLC系统中，通过不同小波基性能分析与对比，利用bior6.8双正交小波基进行系统性能优化。将DWT-OFDM的G3-PLC系统在实际电力线噪声库环境下进行实验分析，仿真结果表明，在平均误码率为10-3量级时，性能有5 dB左右提升，通信效率由40%提高至54%；结合限幅法，峰均比由11 dB降低至8 dB，通信性能极大优于基于FFT-OFDM的G3-PLC系统。     

体验型产品在线评论与消费意愿及销量的关系——以价格为调节变量

随着网络在线交易的迅猛发展,在线评论等网络口碑传播的重要性日益凸显。以体验型产品为研究对象,以信号理论和"刺激-反应"理论为指导,建立"在线评论-消费意愿-在线销量"模型分析三个要素之间的关系机理,并采用中介效应检验和调节效应检验进行验证,结果显示:在线评论作为一种信息刺激,其数量对体验型产品在线销量具有显著的正向影响,但在线评论质量效价评分对体验型产品在线销量的影响不显著,这与产品的类型有关;在线评论一是直接对在线销量产生影响,一是通过中介变量(即作为消费意愿替代变量的收藏量)传递影响,对在线销量产生作用;商品价格在在线评论和在线销量的直接和间接关系中都起到了正向调节作用,这与体验型产品交易过程中价格质量信号功能强于促销功能有关。实践中,企业可通过一些激励设计提高消费者在线评论参与度;进行更加科学化的网页设计,完善收藏功能,以方便消费者进行筛选和比较;注意防止盲目降价行为给消费者带来的负面影响,发挥好价格的信号作用。     

大数据下“互联网+冰雪旅游”产业融合发展对策

十九大报告指出:"要推动互联网、大数据、人工智能和实体经济深度融合"。首先,分析大数据对冰雪旅游产业发展的作用;调查"互联网+冰雪旅游"产业融合现状,分析出现的问题;提出大数据背景下"互联网+冰雪旅游"产业融合发展对策是构建冰雪旅游大数据分析中心,实现精准营销;强化政府主导和支持力度,均衡市场发展;培养复合型旅游专业人才,提升创新能力;创新市场运营模式,增强融合动力。     

农村劳动力流动对脱贫的影响文献综述

关于农村劳动力流动与贫困之间的关系一直是社会各界广泛关注的焦点。本研究通过对相关文献的梳理，针对劳动力外出务工的减贫效应，从贫困缓解论、贫困加剧论以及不确定论三方面进行概述，重点分析劳动力流动对我国农村贫困的影响及机制。结果表明，农村劳动力外出务工通过提高农户非农收入和改善整个社会的资源配置效率在收入维度上对农村贫困具有一定减缓作用，但同时，受农村劳动力过量流失的影响，外出务工在农户生活照料及社会保障等多维贫困上并未表现出显著作用，甚至存在一定负面影响。因此，应把握好劳动力外出之度，促进劳动力就近就业，同时加强对农村留守人员的社会保障，以实现多维脱贫、乡村繁荣。